BrownBagBets: Winning the August Bankroll with EPL, Olympics, and MLB Picks

Another winning day is in the books for BrownBagBets, propelling our August bankroll to an impressive 124% of our starting amount. This continued success is a testament to the disciplined, data-driven approach that sets us apart and keeps our community thriving.

As we look to today, we’re excited about the commencement of the EPL season with the Community Shield match taking center stage. The thrill of top-tier soccer is back, and we’re ready to dive in with strategic insights and well-crafted picks. Additionally, we have a special pick lined up for the Women’s Gold Medal match at the Olympics where the USA takes on Brazil in what promises to be a thrilling encounter.

And, of course, MLB action continues with 16 games on the slate, providing us with plenty of opportunities to identify value and maximize returns. Whether it’s soccer or baseball, our focus remains on making smart, calculated bets that keep our community winning.

Let’s keep the momentum rolling and make today another successful day for BrownBagBets! Stay tuned for today’s picks and wager guidance.

FA Community Shield: Manchester City vs Manchester United

Historic Rivalry with High Stakes

The FA Community Shield sets the stage for the English Premier League season, bringing the league champions and FA Cup winners into a head-to-head clash. This year’s showdown between Manchester City and Manchester United is particularly special, marking their first encounter in this competition since 2011. While Manchester City edged Arsenal to secure the EPL title, Manchester United had their moment of glory by defeating City 2-1 in the FA Cup final. This match is not just about silverware; it’s a statement of intent for the season ahead.

City’s Tactical Adjustments

Expect a different approach from Pep Guardiola compared to the FA Cup final. Manchester City will likely be more aggressive in breaking down United’s narrow defensive structure. With the possible inclusion of dynamic wingers like Doku or Savio, City aims to create width and exploit 1v1 situations. City’s ability to dominate possession and create numerous chances will be crucial, as they averaged at least 19 shots per game in their three meetings last season. United, on the other hand, might adopt a more passive approach, allowing City to take the initiative.

Both Teams’ Current Form and Motivations

Manchester City will be eager to avenge their FA Cup defeat and prove their mettle after a somewhat shaky preseason, where they lost three out of four friendlies. Despite these setbacks, City remains a dominant force, having secured the Premier League title in six of the last seven seasons. The Community Shield is an opportunity for Guardiola’s side to assert their dominance once again.

Manchester United, fresh from their FA Cup victory, will look to build on that momentum, although their preseason form has been inconsistent with three losses in five friendlies. The absence of striker Rasmus Hojlund due to injury is a significant blow, but the Red Devils will be motivated to kick off the season on a high note against their fierce rivals.

Bet: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals / Wager: 3%

Olympic Gold Medal Game - Women’s Soccer: USA vs Brazil

USA’s Consistency and Tactical Discipline

One of the most noticeable changes under first-year manager Emma Hayes has been her quick establishment of a consistent starting XI, a stark contrast to the rotational strategies employed by previous coach Vlatko Andonovski. This consistency has allowed the team to develop a solid understanding of roles and tactics, providing stability throughout the tournament. However, this approach does raise concerns about player fatigue, particularly after consecutive extra-time games.

Half of Hayes’ starting field players have played at least five full 90-minute sessions, including the standout duo of Trinity Rodman and Sophia Smith, who each have three goals in the tournament. Despite the demanding schedule, the team’s energy levels didn’t wane in their semifinal against Germany, where the USWNT’s best play arguably came after the hour mark, suggesting that Hayes’ players have managed their recoveries well, even excelling in the later stages of intense matches.

Naomi Girma has been a defensive linchpin, playing every moment of the tournament and emerging as perhaps the best defender in the competition. Her leadership at the back, combined with the team’s overall defensive solidity, has been crucial to the USA’s run to the final.

Brazil’s Surprising Resilience Without Marta

Brazil’s journey to the final has been unexpected, particularly after a rocky group stage and the suspension of their iconic forward, Marta, for the first two knockout matches. Despite losing twice in the group stage, Brazil found their form in the knockout rounds, largely playing on the counter and maintaining a low possession strategy. The Selecao have averaged only 28% possession in their last three matches, yet they’ve been ruthlessly efficient in front of goal.

Marta’s absence, while initially seen as a setback, may have actually benefited Brazil. The 38-year-old, while still a brilliant player, can sometimes be a defensive liability, much like Cristiano Ronaldo in his later years. The team has arguably been more cohesive and defensively sound without her, relying on younger, more dynamic players to execute their counter-attacking game plan.

Brazil’s stunning 4-1 semifinal victory over Spain, one of the tournament favorites, highlighted their potential. Gabi Portilho, Brazil’s standout scorer with multiple goals in the competition, has been a key player, even though she has seen limited minutes, which could make her a dangerous, fresh-legged asset in the final.

USA’s Tactical Edge and Historical Dominance

Historically, the USA has dominated Brazil in tournament play, winning 33 out of 40 encounters. While past records may not directly influence the outcome of this match, the psychological advantage and confidence gained from such a dominant history cannot be overlooked.

The USWNT is known for controlling possession and imposing their physical style of play, often making it difficult for opponents to find their rhythm. With a formidable frontline trio of Mallory Swanson, Sophia Smith, and Trinity Rodman, the Americans have the firepower to challenge any defense. The backline, anchored by Crystal Dunn, Naomi Girma, and Emily Sonnett, has been equally impressive, conceding only two goals throughout the tournament.

Bet: USA ML (90 minutes) / Wager: 4%

Given their consistency, tactical discipline, and psychological edge, the USA is well-positioned to secure their fifth Olympic gold medal in women’s soccer. Brazil’s recent resurgence and counter-attacking prowess make them a formidable opponent, but the Americans’ overall quality and depth should see them through in regular time, albeit in what could be a closely contested match.

MLB: Detroit Tigers at San Francisco Giants

Logan Webb’s Dominance

The Giants are in prime position to continue their push toward a wild card spot, thanks in large part to Logan Webb. Webb has been phenomenal in his last two starts, posting a minuscule 0.63 ERA and an impressive 0.88 WHIP. His complete-game shutout of the A’s on July 31 showcased his ability to shut down even the most persistent of offenses. Given Detroit’s limited offensive firepower, this might be the worst possible time for the Tigers to face Webb.

Tigers’ Offensive Struggles

Detroit’s lineup remains weak, particularly after the trade deadline, leaving them even more vulnerable in matchups against top-tier pitchers. Last night’s 3-2 loss to the Giants is emblematic of their ongoing struggles at the plate, which are likely to continue against Webb. The Tigers’ lack of run production makes it difficult for them to compete, especially against a Giants team that has been playing solid baseball.

San Francisco’s Wild Card Chase

The Giants are in a strong position as they climb above .500 and solidify their spot in the NL wild card race. Their recent success, including last night’s win over the Tigers, demonstrates their momentum. With Webb on the mound and the Tigers scrambling to find an effective opener, San Francisco is poised for another victory by multiple runs.

Bet: Giants -1.5 / Wager: 5%

MLB: San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins

Riding the Padres’ Hot Streak

The San Diego Padres are the hottest team in baseball right now, winning 15 of their last 17 games. They showcased their resilience by rallying late to overcome the Marlins in extra innings last night, continuing their dominance. The Padres’ lineup, known for its discipline and ability to get on base, has been relentless in pressuring opposing pitchers. This momentum makes them an enticing pick, especially against a struggling Marlins team.

Miami’s Struggles on the Mound

Roddery Munoz is set to start for the Marlins, but he’s been far from reliable, posting a 5.82 ERA since the start of July. He’s struggled to miss bats and has been prone to allowing plenty of contact, something that’s likely to spell trouble against a Padres lineup that excels at getting on base and capitalizing on pitching mistakes. Additionally, Munoz has failed to pitch deep into games, going five innings or less in six of his last seven starts. This is problematic, considering the Marlins’ bullpen is depleted, especially after losing their closer to San Diego at the trade deadline.

Reliable Pitching from San Diego

On the other side, Matt Waldron continues to be a steady presence for the Padres, boasting a 3.05 ERA since late May. His ability to keep the Marlins’ offense in check, combined with Miami’s struggles against competent pitching, further solidifies San Diego’s position as the favorite in this matchup. The Marlins’ lineup has been inconsistent, and with a depleted bullpen, they seem overmatched against a Padres team firing on all cylinders.

Bet: Padres -1.5 / Wager: 5%

MLB: Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox

Fading Chris Flexen

The Pale Hose are a team in freefall, particularly when Chris Flexen is on the mound. The White Sox are an astonishing 2-22 in his starts, and they’ve lost 16 in a row, with 13 of those defeats coming by more than one run. His recent outings have been disastrous, with margins of defeat of 6, 3, 8, 6, 4, and 2 runs in his last six starts. Flexen’s home starts have been equally poor, as the White Sox have lost 10 straight of those, nine of which were by multiple runs. There’s been no noticeable improvement after firing their manager, leaving this team in disarray.

Justin Steele’s Consistency

On the other side, Justin Steele has been solid for the Cubs, particularly on the road, where he boasts a 3.00 ERA. The Cubs are 7-2 in their last nine games, with five of those wins by two or more runs. Steele’s reliable pitching should keep the White Sox’s anemic offense in check, especially considering their struggles against left-handed pitching (7-15 vs. LHP this season).

White Sox Bullpen Struggles

The White Sox bullpen is another weak spot, appearing broken and fatigued after recent games. Even Garrett Crochet, usually a reliable arm, could not provide the necessary length in Friday’s defeat. This worn-down bullpen only increases the likelihood of a multi-run Cubs victory.

Bet: Cubs -1.5 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies

Taking the Value on the Run Line

In baseball, securing +2.5 runs, especially for a home team, is often too good to pass up, and today is no exception. While the Rockies aren’t necessarily a powerhouse, the mere fact that they’re playing at home makes this a valuable play. Home-field advantage matters, and the Rockies’ lineup can still surprise on any given night, particularly in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field.

Pitching Considerations

Dakota Hudson is by no means an ace, and his recent struggles are well documented. However, Coors Field can be a tricky place for even the best pitchers, and Atlanta’s offense, while potent, isn’t guaranteed to cover such a wide spread every game. The unpredictability of the thin air in Denver could lead to a closer contest than expected, especially if Hudson can manage a serviceable outing.

Braves’ Offense vs. Colorado’s Resilience

The Braves’ 2023 offense is undeniably one of the best in MLB, which is why the spread is as wide as it is. Still, the Rockies at +2.5 provide a buffer that compensates for any potential late-game surge from Atlanta. Moreover, the Rockies’ ability to at least keep games competitive at home should not be underestimated.

Bet: Rockies +2.5 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers

Pitching Duel on the Horizon

The spotlight is on two of the most exciting young pitchers in the game today. Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes, widely regarded as one of the top prospects in baseball, faces off against the Dodgers’ promising rookie, River Ryan. While Skenes has been nothing short of sensational, posting elite numbers and showcasing electric stuff, Ryan has quietly put together an impressive start to his MLB career with an ERA that slightly edges out Skenes.

Dodgers’ Home Advantage

The idea of getting the Dodgers at home with a +1.5 run line is intriguing, especially given how solid they have been at Dodger Stadium. The oddsmakers might be leaning too heavily into Skenes’ potential dominance, but let’s not forget that this Dodgers team is packed with talent and has a deep lineup that can challenge even the best young arms. Plus, there’s something special about the energy in LA when a top prospect is on the mound, which could give Ryan that extra push.

Bet: Dodgers +1.5 / Wager: 3%