Rising from the Depths: BrownBagBets’ Strategic Comeback in April

In the dynamic world of sports betting, BrownBagBets exemplifies the art of the comeback. From the depths of the 60s, we’ve orchestrated a steady ascent, marking yet another victory last night with a commendable 5% growth. Today, we stand tall at 89% of our starting bankroll, a testament to resilience, strategy, and the unwavering belief in our approach. This month, April, has unfolded as a vivid demonstration of the BrownBagBets philosophy in action: it’s not about the day-to-day fluctuations but winning the month as a whole.

Our strategy is not predicated on chasing losses or attempting to reclaim ground with reckless wagers. Instead, we adhere to a disciplined, calculated approach, ensuring that every bet is placed with consideration and backed by thorough analysis. Last night’s success, spearheaded by a confident 5% wager on UConn, underscores the efficacy of our method. It’s a strategy that doesn’t just aim to mitigate risks but capitalizes on opportunities with precision and foresight.

Today beckons with a rich tapestry of sporting events, from the thrilling Champions League Quarterfinals to a bustling slate of NBA and MLB games, not to mention the enticing NHL matchups. Each event is a new battlefield, and we’re armed with the insights, the strategies, and the collective spirit to conquer.

As we continue to navigate through April, let’s remember that our journey is far from over. With each passing game, we inch closer to flipping the script on this month, demonstrating that in the realm of sports betting, patience, strategy, and resilience are your best allies. Let’s keep this winning train on its tracks, fueled by our shared commitment to not just participate in the betting world, but to master it.

Champions League: Bayern Munich at Arsenal

Pick: Arsenal ML / Wager: 2%

Arsenal’s Momentum: The Gunners, currently leading the Premier League, are set to host a struggling Bayern Munich at the Emirates Stadium. With an impressive recent record of nine wins and a draw from their last ten league matches, Arsenal’s form is formidable. Their defense and attack are the best in the league, making them a tough opponent for any team.

Bayern’s Struggles: Bayern Munich is facing a rough patch, with unexpected defeats against Borussia Dortmund and Heidenheim. Their defense has been particularly weak, conceding 36 goals in 28 games, a surprising statistic for a team coached by the defensively-minded Thomas Tuchel.

Key Players and Tactics: Arsenal’s strength lies in their solid defense and dynamic attack, with players like Martin Ødegaard, Kai Havertz, and Bukayo Saka in excellent form. Bayern, despite having talented players and new signings like Harry Kane and Kim Min-jae, has struggled to find consistency, particularly in defense.

Venue Advantage and Historical Context: Arsenal has been exceptionally strong at home, winning all their Champions League home matches this season without conceding a goal. The last Champions League encounter between these two ended in a heavy defeat for Arsenal, but the current form suggests a different outcome is possible.

Conclusion: Given Arsenal’s current form and Bayern Munich’s defensive issues, the Gunners have a prime opportunity to avenge past defeats and progress in the Champions League. Arsenal’s solid defense and potent attack, coupled with the home advantage, make them the favorites to win this crucial match.​

Champions League: Manchester City at Real MadridP

Pick: Over 2.5 goals / Wager: 2%

Pick: Real Madrid Draw No Bet / Wager: 2%

Pick: Real Madrid over 1.5 Team Total Goals @ +130 / Wager: 1%

Clash of the Titans: In a quarterfinal that feels more like a finale, reigning UCL champions Manchester City face off against the most decorated club in the competition, Real Madrid. This showdown at the Bernabeu promises fireworks, featuring two of the globe’s most explosive offenses.

The Bernabeu Advantage: Real Madrid’s home prowess is legendary, and their record at the Bernabeu this season is unblemished. With stars like Vini Jr. and Jude Bellingham leading the charge, Madrid’s attack is formidable. Against a City team showing vulnerability, expect Madrid to capitalize on their home advantage.

City’s Stumbles: Despite their reputation, Manchester City has shown cracks this season, with defensive lapses and an inconsistent Erling Haaland. Guardiola’s struggle to maintain a fit starting XI has seen City drop points, suggesting vulnerability Real Madrid can exploit.

Defensive Dynamics: Real Madrid’s defensive improvements in the latter half of the season are noteworthy. Ancelotti’s tactical flexibility, coupled with a return to full fitness for key defenders, positions Madrid well to contain City’s varied attack. Expect a cautious approach from both sides, with Madrid likely to leverage their quick transitions.

Guardiola’s Caution: Given the injuries to key defenders and the stakes, Guardiola might opt for a conservative lineup, mirroring last season’s cautious first-leg approach at the Bernabeu. This tactical restraint could influence the game’s flow, with Madrid ready to exploit any opportunity.

Prediction: With Real Madrid’s home strength and Manchester City’s recent vulnerabilities, expect a high-scoring affair that leans in Madrid’s favor. The stage is set for Madrid to extend their impressive Champions League legacy against a formidable but faltering City side.​

MLB: Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox

Pick: Orioles ML (-130) / Wager: 2%

Simulated Advantage: The numbers give the Orioles a 60% chance of victory with Corbin Burnes on the mound, suggesting the line should be closer to -150. This statistical edge is too good to pass up, especially against Brayan Bello.

Bello’s Challenge: The Orioles’ lefties—Henderson, Rutschman, and Santander—are primed to give Bello a tough time. His susceptibility to the long ball and recent struggles against the A’s paint a picture of potential Orioles dominance.

Scheduling Impact: Boston’s recent exhaustive travel schedule, culminating in a long West Coast stint, could lead to a subdued performance. Despite an off-day to recover, this scheduling quirk might leave the Red Sox bats quieter than usual.

MLB: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians

Pick: Guardians -1.5 @ +105 / Wager: 2%

Offensive Struggles: The White Sox’s lineup has shown significant weaknesses, even more pronounced with Luis Robert sidelined. The presence of too many borderline major-leaguers and sluggers in a cold spell leaves the team struggling at the plate.

Guardians’ Pitching Edge: Logan Webb takes the mound for the Guardians, exemplifying the team’s knack for nurturing young talent into quality starters. His performance contrasts with Mike Soroka’s current form, where Soroka seems to be making less impact in terms of strikeouts.

Scoring Efficiency: Although the Guardians are not the highest-scoring team, their consistent ability to put runs on the board, coupled with the White Sox’s lineup issues, positions Cleveland favorably to cover the spread with a similar offensive output to their last game.

MLB: Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays

Pick: Mariners -1.5 @ +152 / Wager: 1%

Underrated Kirby: George Kirby’s stats might not show it, but the value’s there. Expect him to shine against a Toronto lineup that’s been less than stellar. Their approach at the plate? Questionable at best, which sets Kirby up for a standout performance.

Toronto’s Troubles: The Blue Jays’ struggles go beyond their bats. Chemistry issues and managerial instability suggest deeper problems. It’s an opportune moment for the Mariners to capitalize on these vulnerabilities.

Bassitt’s Battles: Chris Bassitt hasn’t been at his deceptive best, and Seattle’s hitters have had their share of success against him. This matchup leans in favor of the Mariners, predicting a dominant outing from Kirby.

Kirby’s Night: Betting on Kirby isn’t just a wager; it’s an expectation for a breakthrough performance. Predicting a stellar night of seven innings, one earned run, and ten strikeouts isn’t just hopeful; it’s recognizing the potential for significant betting value amidst the oddsmakers’ skepticism.

MLB: Miami Marlins at New York Yankees

Pick: Yankees -1.5 @ +105 / Wager: 1%

Yankees’ Pitching Advantage: Carlos Rodon has hit the ground running with the Yankees, showcasing early-season form that elevates the team’s competitive edge. Coupled with a bullpen kept fresh by Nestor Cortes’ recent dominant performance, the Yankees’ pitching staff is primed for success.

Miami’s Struggles Against Lefties: The Marlins find themselves at the bottom of the league in OPS when facing southpaw pitchers, a statistic that plays directly into the Yankees’ hands given their left-handed starting pitcher.

AJ Puk’s Rocky Transition: Transitioning from the bullpen to the starting rotation hasn’t been smooth for AJ Puk. His struggles in his first two starts, despite being on home turf, signal potential challenges as he faces a formidable Yankees lineup on the road.

Strategic Bet: With the Moneyline pushing past comfortable value at -200, the move to back the Yankees at -1.5 becomes a strategic play, blending confidence in New York’s pitching with Miami’s offensive woes against left-handers. This wager leans into the Yankees’ strengths while acknowledging the Marlins’ current limitations.

MLB: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves

Pick: Reynaldo Lopez under 4.5 strikeouts (-113) / Wager: 2%

Role Transition: Reynaldo Lopez has stepped from the bullpen into the spotlight as the Braves’ 5th starter. Despite impressing in his first outing, expectations need tempering, especially with a probable pitch count limit that caps his innings.

Strikeout Challenge: Facing the Mets isn’t a strikeout pitcher’s dream. Their consistently low K-rate presents a significant hurdle for Lopez, challenging his ability to rack up the strikeouts.

Pitch Count Reality: With Lopez likely on a short leash around 85-90 pitches, his window to accumulate strikeouts is narrow. Given the matchup and his new role’s constraints, banking on a lower strikeout total offers a valuable angle.

Strategic Betting: This wager isn’t just about Lopez’s ability; it’s a play against the matchup and situational pitching strategy. The Mets’ discipline at the plate and Lopez’s pitch count limit create a prime scenario for betting the under on strikeouts.​

MLB: Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals

Pick: Royals +1.5 (-155) / Wager: 2%

Royals’ Offensive Prowess: Kansas City’s bats have been under the radar, landing them in the top 10 across significant hitting metrics, especially against right-handed pitchers where their low strikeout rate shines. This disciplined approach at the plate positions them well for upcoming matchups.

Astros’ Struggles and Recent Uptick: While the Astros showcased their ability against lefties with a recent surge against Andrew Heaney, their overall performance this season against left-handed pitching remains lackluster. This inconsistency could play into the Royals’ hands.

Pitching Matchup Edge: Cole Ragan, the Royals’ under-the-radar gem, has already demonstrated his value with a standout performance against Baltimore. His pre-season Cy Young buzz wasn’t for naught, as his recent outing solidifies his status. While Cristian Javier holds his own as a solid pitcher for Houston, Ragan’s form and the Royals’ rest day give Kansas City a subtle yet significant edge.

Strategic Betting Insight: This game presents a valuable opportunity to back the Royals, considering their recent form, strategic rest day, and the pitching matchup. With the odds favoring a closely contested game, taking the Royals with the +1.5 run line capitalizes on their current momentum and pitching advantage.

MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at Minnesota Twins

Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-120) / Wager: 2%

Pitching Matchup Insight: Tyler Glasnow’s Cy Young-caliber talent contrasts sharply with Gus Varland’s precarious spot in the Twins’ rotation. Glasnow’s history against the Twins’ hitters and his dominant presence on the mound set the stage for a Dodgers advantage.

Dodgers’ Offensive Power: The top half of the Dodgers’ lineup is primed to exploit Varland’s vulnerabilities. Their potent bats, combined with the Twins’ early-season injuries and missing key players, position Los Angeles for a strong offensive showing.

Weather and Game Dynamics: Although cooler temperatures might be a concern, the Dodgers’ lineup depth and ability to chase Varland early into the game are significant. Expect Los Angeles to break into the Twins’ bullpen by the middle innings, amplifying their scoring opportunities.

MLB: Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals

Pick: Phillies ML (-135) / Wager: 3%

Pitching Duel Edge: Zack Wheeler’s exceptional start to the season, allowing only one run across 12 innings with 10 strikeouts in his latest outing, sets a high bar. His ability to pitch deep into the game will be crucial for the Phillies, especially considering the Cardinals’ bullpen usage in a lengthy 10-inning game the day before.

Cardinals’ Pitching Strategy: Sonny Gray’s debut as a Cardinal comes with a notable restriction—a 65-pitch limit. This limitation not only highlights his debut but also shifts focus on how the Cardinals’ bullpen, already stretched thin from recent use, will manage the innings following his early exit.

Game Dynamics and Betting Implications: The combination of Wheeler’s dominance and the Cardinals’ bullpen situation post-Gray presents a strong case for the Phillies. Expect Wheeler’s form and the strategic bullpen management to play pivotal roles, making the Phillies the favored bet in this matchup.​

MLB: Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers

Pick: Rangers -1.5 (+115) / Wager: 2%

Pitching Matchup Advantage: Nathan Eovaldi’s reliability on the mound gives the Rangers a solid foundation against the A’s. Alex Wood’s recent performances, characterized by pitches that too often resemble batting practice, combined with a less-than-stellar defense behind him, points to a clear edge for Texas.

Offensive Momentum: The Rangers’ lineup has seamlessly continued its postseason prowess into the new season, indicating a readiness to exploit any weaknesses in the A’s pitching staff, much like their encounters last year.

Home Field Factor: The Rangers’ home advantage at Globe Life Field is anticipated to provide an extra boost, especially coming off a significant series against Houston. The environment and fan support in Texas are expected to minimize any potential drop in intensity, contrasting with what might have been a more subdued atmosphere at Oakland Coliseum.

MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies

Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-130) / Wager: 2%

Bounce-Back Factor: After a disappointing bullpen performance in the series opener, the Diamondbacks are poised for redemption. Merrill Kelly steps up to the mound with an impressive early season form, offering a strong chance for Arizona to assert its dominance.

Pitching Prowess: Kelly’s record speaks volumes, with just three runs allowed over two starts and a noteworthy .176 batting average against him. His past success at Coors Field, marked by Quality Starts and a high strikeout rate, hints at a continuation of his solid performance.

Opponent’s Struggles: Cal Quantrill’s challenging start to the season, highlighted by a high ERA and WHIP over two outings, presents a clear vulnerability. His struggles are magnified by a tendency towards walks, an area the Diamondbacks’ lineup is well-equipped to exploit, especially in the hitter-friendly environment of Denver.

NBA: Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers

Pick: Joel Embiid over 9.5 Rebounds / Wager: 2%

Domination Down Low: Joel Embiid’s towering presence and rebounding prowess are set to challenge the Pistons’ young frontcourt. Detroit, particularly Jaren Duren, faces a daunting task in containing Embiid, a challenge compounded by the Sixers’ star’s intensity and physicality.

Superstar Spotlight: While superstar props are typically approached with caution, Embiid’s situation presents a compelling case. With the Sixers pushing to secure their playoff position and Embiid seeking to regain form after a hiatus, his commitment to extended minutes signals a focused pursuit of peak performance.

Strategic Importance: Embiid’s role is crucial as Philadelphia aims to avoid the play-in tournament, capitalizing on a favorable schedule. His dominance since returning to the court underscores his intent to lead by example, highlighting his critical contribution to the Sixers’ late-season ambitions.

In a matchup against a Pistons team eyeing the offseason, Embiid’s rebounding capability will be pivotal. His determination to secure a direct playoff berth for the Sixers, coupled with his impressive return form, makes the over on his rebounding prop an attractive bet.​

NBA: Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors

Pick: Gary Trent Jr. under 21.5 Pts / Wager: 2%

Pick: Kelly Olynyk under 13.5 Rebs + Assts / Wager: 2%

Inflated Expectations: Kelly Olynyk’s RA line sits notably higher than his season average of approximately 9.7, a stretch even considering his slightly improved output as a starter (12.1 RA). Despite the Pacers’ uptempo play, which theoretically offers more rebound and assist opportunities, their middling defensive stats against centers don’t justify such a lofty projection.

Scoring Stretch: Gary Trent Jr. faces a towering point total that overshadows his season average of 13.7 PPG. With the Raptors pivoting towards youth development and draft positioning, Trent’s increased minutes and usage haven’t sufficiently boosted his scoring to meet this ambitious line. Additionally, the potential for a lopsided game could curtail his on-court impact.

Risk Analysis: Both players’ inflated lines carry a blowout risk that could further limit their contributions. For Olynyk, even with additional possessions afforded by the Pacers’ pace, the line seems overly optimistic given Indiana’s average allowance to opposing centers. Trent’s scenario is similar, with his expanded role in a winding-down Raptors campaign unlikely to surmount the set threshold.

NBA: Dallas Mavericks at Charlotte Hornets

Pick: PJ Washington over 21.5 Pts + Rebs + Assts / Wager: 2%

Homecoming Motivation: PJ Washington’s return to Charlotte marks his first game against his former team since the trade. His tenure with the Hornets, highlighted by a recent three-year extension, sets the stage for a motivated performance.

Strategic Fit in Dallas: Since joining the Mavericks, Washington has integrated seamlessly as the starting power forward, showcasing his 3&D skills alongside stars like Luka and Kyrie. His role has been crucial, especially with Dallas’ current limitations in front court depth.

Elevated Play Time: With the Mavericks’ roster stretched thin, Washington has been clocking substantial minutes, often surpassing the 40-minute mark in recent games. This trend is expected to continue, potentially boosted by personal drive to excel against his former squad.

Washington’s unique situation—returning to face his old team with heightened responsibilities on a new squad—positions him for a standout performance, making an over on his combined points, rebounds, and assists a compelling bet.

NBA: Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks

Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 11.5 Rebounds / Wager: 3%

Pick: Jaylen Brown over 20.5 Points / Wager: 3%

The Greek Freak’s Board Domination: Giannis Antetokounmpo is not just playing; he’s on a rebounding spree, with an average of 15.3 rebounds over his last seven games. His relentless pursuit of the ball has seen him surpass this rebounding prop in six of those games, including both clashes with the Celtics this season. With potential absences on Boston’s frontcourt and the Bucks’ urgent need to cling to the No. 2 seed, expect Giannis to be a rebounding machine, possibly clocking nearly 40 minutes on the court.

Jaylen Brown’s Scoring Prowess: Jaylen Brown has ascended to being Boston’s top performer post-All-Star break, showcasing what might be the finest stretch of his professional career. Against a Milwaukee defense that hasn’t found a way to contain him, Brown stands poised to exceed his point total, especially with key players like Porzingis and Horford potentially sidelined.

NBA: Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns

Pick: Jusuf Nurkic under 15.5 Rebs + Assts / Wager: 2%

Pick: Suns -7.5 / Wager: 1%

The Nurkic Proposition: Jusuf Nurkic, despite a commendable season that’s seen him dodge injuries and log significant minutes, faces a challenging prop against the Clippers. His average of 14.8 rebounds and assists per game this season hovers just below this ambitious line. With the Suns entering the first game of a back-to-back set, there’s a strong case to be made for managed minutes for Nurkic, making the under an appealing play.

Suns Shine Brighter: The Suns’ spread has been on the move, initially opening at -6 and climbing. The anticipated absence of Kawhi Leonard for the Clippers adds a layer of complexity to this matchup, further tilting the scales in favor of Phoenix. The Suns have been hitting their stride lately, combining solid play and favorable matchups to create a momentum that’s hard to bet against, especially with the Clippers potentially missing key personnel.

NBA: Orlando Magic at Houston Rockets

Pick: Over 212.5 / Wager: 3%

Defensive Downturn: The Rockets have been generous on defense, giving up an average of 123 points in their last six games. This slump coincides with their fading playoff hopes and the glaring absence of their pivotal center, magnifying their defensive frailties.

High Scoring Trend: Houston’s games have consistently hit the over, with a streak of five straight and an impressive 11-2 record for overs in their last 13 outings. This trend underscores their offensive capabilities despite defensive shortcomings.

Pace Pushers: Houston’s youthful lineup maintains a stop-and-pop style, aiming to dictate the game’s tempo. Against the defensively solid Magic, the Rockets will likely attempt to accelerate the pace, challenging Orlando’s preference for more structured play.

Orlando’s Road Record: While the Magic are recognized for their defensive prowess, their performance on the road suggests a tendency towards higher-scoring games, with four of their last six away games surpassing 216 points. This indicates Orlando’s capacity to adapt and engage in faster-paced contests outside their home court.

Offensive Clash: The Magic haven’t faced an offense as dynamic as Houston’s in recent weeks, presenting a unique challenge. This matchup promises an interesting contrast in styles, with the potential for a high-scoring affair as Orlando adjusts to the Rockets’ aggressive offensive approach.

NBA: New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls

Pick: Knicks -5 / Wager: 2%

Steam Movement: Initially set at -1, the line for the Knicks has shifted significantly, indicating early bettors found considerable value, pushing it well beyond a single possession’s difference. This movement showcases the betting market’s confidence in New York’s edge.

Rebound and Recover: Following a recent matchup where the Knicks, known for their league-leading rebounding, were uncharacteristically dominated on the boards by Chicago, they’re entering this game with a chip on their shoulder. Expect a strong push to assert dominance in rebounding and overall play, motivated by the opportunity to clinch the 2nd seed in the East.

Bulls’ Home Woes: Chicago’s performance at home has been less than stellar, with a 3-7 ATS record in their last 10 home games. With their playoff positioning nearly set in the lower seeds, their drive to compete against a highly motivated Knicks team might wane.

Knicks’ Motivation: New York is not just seeking redemption for a previous loss but is also in the hunt for a higher playoff seeding. Coupled with an expectation of improved shooting performance, the Knicks are well-positioned to cover the spread and secure a win against a potentially disinterested Bulls team.​

NBA: Washington Wizards at Minnesota Timberwolves

Pick: Anthony Edwards over 26.5 Total Points / Wager: 2%

Pick: Rudy Gobert over 28.5 Total Pts + Rebs / Wager: 2%

Scoring Bonanza: With the Wizards allowing a whopping 126.5 points per game on the road post-All-Star Game, Anthony Edwards, one of the NBA’s elite scorers, is poised for a big night. Washington’s defense, already lackluster, hits the road with nothing on the line, facing a Timberwolves team eyeing the top seed. Edwards, who netted 38 in their previous encounter and averages 25, is set to eclipse his average against the defensively deficient Wizards.

Dominant Inside Presence: The Timberwolves are in the mix for the top seed, and Rudy Gobert is set to exploit Washington’s weakened interior defense. With the Wizards missing key defenders in the paint, Gobert’s potential for a monstrous double-double is sky-high. The concern isn’t if he can rack up the points and rebounds but whether the game’s margin might limit his minutes. Nonetheless, Gobert’s impact will be substantial whenever he’s on the floor, given Washington’s poor ranking in paint defense, second-chance points allowed, and opponent rebounds post-All-Star Game.

NHL: Carolina Hurricanes at Boston Bruins

Pick: Hurricanes ML / Wager: 2%

Revenge in Sight: Carolina is on a mission to avenge their recent 4-1 setback to the Bruins. With a victory in regulation, the Hurricanes can pull even with Boston at 107 points, tightening the race for the second seed in the Eastern Conference. This matchup is more than just a game; it’s a chance for Carolina to even the score and shift the playoff seeding dynamics.

Statistical Superiority: The Hurricanes boast a league-leading defense, minimizing shots against and showcasing a staggering +584 shot differential, dwarfing Boston’s 23rd-ranked -107. This statistical dominance extends to discipline and face-offs, with Carolina committing fewer penalty minutes and ranking significantly higher in face-off win percentage. These factors underscore Carolina’s ability to control the game’s pace and possession.

Special Teams Edge: Carolina’s special teams shine brighter, poised to exploit Boston’s lesser discipline. This advantage could be crucial in a tightly contested matchup, where power plays and penalty kills often tip the balance.

Resilience and History: The Hurricanes have shown remarkable resilience, avoiding back-to-back losses against Boston since 2022. This pattern of bouncing back suggests a team that learns from its defeats and adjusts, a key trait of championship contenders.

NHL: Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens

Pick: Canadiens ML @ +118 / Wager: 1%

Streaks and Slumps: The Flyers find themselves in a dire slump, winless in their last seven outings. This unfortunate timing has seen them slip below the playoff cut-line in the East, sparking regret within management for not securing a veteran goaltender at the deadline. Instead, reliance on rookie Samuel Ersson has backfired, with a GAA of 5.40 and a save percentage of .800 in his recent appearances.

Goalie Gambit: The Canadiens have a not-so-secret weapon in Cayden Primeau, who previously steered Montreal to a convincing 4-1 victory over the Flyers during this tough stretch. Primeau’s performance adds a layer of confidence to Montreal’s prospects in this matchup.

Riding the Wave: As the Flyers’ season takes a turbulent turn under John Tortorella’s watch, the anti-Flyers sentiment grows stronger. Montreal’s recent win, coupled with Philadelphia’s goalkeeping woes, presents a compelling case to back the Canadiens.