Saturday’s Betting Canvas: Paint Your Victory with BrownBagBets’ Free Picks

Welcome to an unprecedented Saturday at BrownBagBets, where we’re dialing up the excitement with an extraordinary lineup of picks that’s sure to captivate our community. Today, we’re embarking on a journey with five English Premier League (EPL) selections, a rarity that underscores our commitment to identifying value wherever it lies. But that’s not all – we’re also diving deep into the heart of NCAA basketball with 11 plays, setting the stage for the upcoming March Madness, an event that for us, rivals the intensity and thrill of the Super Bowl. It’s a big day, not just in terms of the volume of picks, but in the opportunity it presents to fortify our standings and continue our impressive streak, aiming to maintain our position ahead of 100% bankroll for February.

What sets BrownBagBets apart is not just the range of our picks, but the ethos that underpins everything we do. We stand for transparency, offering a free service where every pick comes with a thorough explanation, sharing our thought process and the rationale behind each selection. There are no secret picks, no exclusive channels – just a vibrant community dedicated to learning, growing, and improving in the sports betting landscape together. As we face this massive day of picks, let’s remember the values that have brought us this far: a shared pursuit of knowledge, the joy of collective success, and the relentless quest to become better bettors. Here’s to a day of opportunities, insights, and, hopefully, celebrations.

English Premier League: Arsenal @ Burnley

Pick: Arsenal -1.5 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Arsenal over 2.5 goals @ +125 / Wager: 2%

Burnley has shown moments of promise this season but continues to struggle defensively against the top-tier teams of the Premier League, a trend that isn’t significantly altered by the support of their home crowd. Arsenal’s upcoming visit to Turf Moor presents a challenge for Burnley, especially considering Arsenal’s prolific scoring record against newly promoted teams and their solid defensive performances of late.

Despite a potential distraction with a midweek fixture in Portugal, Arsenal’s offensive and defensive stats suggest they’re well-prepared for this encounter. Bukayo Saka, with five goals in his last five appearances, spearheads Arsenal’s attack, which has been exceptionally effective during this period. This effectiveness is supported by Arsenal’s defensive metrics, which show a mere 1.3 expected goals (xG) allowed across four consecutive league victories, highlighting this as potentially their best defensive stretch this season.

Given these factors, the bets on Arsenal to win by more than 1.5 goals and for Arsenal to score over 2.5 goals carry significant value. While Burnley’s expected goals against (xG allowed) might suggest a tighter game, Arsenal’s form against similar opposition this season indicates their capability to exceed expectations. Although Arsenal has been cautious in maintaining clean sheets, their recent form and historical performance against newly promoted sides reinforce the likelihood of a strong offensive showing at Burnley, making both picks compelling for this Premier League matchup.

English Premier League: Aston Villa FC @ Fulham FC

Picks: Villa Draw No Bet / Wager: 2%, Under 2.5 goals @ +115 / Wager: 1%

Aston Villa heads into this fixture with Fulham looking to recover from a recent thrashing by Arsenal and aiming to continue their winning streak against Fulham, having secured victories in their last two encounters. Despite overperforming their expected goals (xG) in many instances this season, Villa’s performance has dipped in recent matchups, notably against Manchester United, where they squandered a two-goal lead and ultimately lost 3-2 at Old Trafford, followed by another defeat despite a strong middle portion of the game.

Under the guidance of Unai Emery, Villa has shown considerable resilience, highlighted by a strong start to the season at Villa Park and a commendable recovery in away games, earning points in five of their last six league outings. However, their ability to maintain this form faces challenges, particularly with key defensive injuries, including defensive midfielder Boubacar Kamara and center-back Diego Carlos, which may impact their defensive solidity and goal-scoring capabilities.

Given Villa’s current form, the “Draw No Bet” option offers a safeguard against a draw, reflecting confidence in Villa’s ability to secure a result while acknowledging the potential for a closely contested match. The pick for under 2.5 goals anticipates a tight game, possibly influenced by Villa’s recent defensive vulnerabilities and Fulham’s opportunity to exploit these. However, Villa’s need to bounce back and their track record against Fulham.

English Premier League: Chelsea FC @ Manchester City

Pick: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 goals @ +120 / Wager: 2%

When Chelsea travels to Manchester City, it sets up an intriguing clash with significant attacking potential from both sides. Chelsea’s away expected goals (xG) of 20.4 ranks second in the Premier League, trailing only behind City’s impressive figures. Moreover, their ability to find the back of the net away from home, with 21 goals scored on the road, positions them sixth in the league, underscoring their attacking prowess.

Manchester City’s defensive record at home this season reveals vulnerabilities, having secured just three clean sheets. The teams City has shut out — Tottenham, Nottingham Forest, and Sheffield United — have had varying degrees of success this season, suggesting City can be breached by a team with Chelsea’s offensive capabilities.

This matchup offers a compelling case for a bet combining both teams to score with the total going over 2.5 goals, especially at odds of -105, reflecting an implied probability of 51.2%. This wager has proven successful in 15 out of 23 instances, considering City’s home performances and Chelsea’s away games. Given the attacking talent on display and both teams’ form, this bet presents an attractive opportunity, viable even at odds as low as -130, making it a standout choice for this Premier League encounter.

NCAA Basketball: Texas Tech @ #10 Iowa State

Pick: Texas Tech +7.5 / Wager: 2%

This matchup presents a value opportunity with Texas Tech receiving an attractive +8 against a formidable Iowa State team, especially when considering my assessment aligns with a closer 5 point differential. The line seems influenced by Iowa State’s impressive performance at home, boasting a 12-2 against the spread (ATS) record, reflecting their dominance in familiar territory. However, Texas Tech’s proficiency in adapting to various game paces and their strong defensive capabilities suggest they are well-equipped to challenge Iowa State’s home court advantage. The Red Raiders’ comfort with controlling game tempo and their defensive prowess position them as capable contenders to not only cover the spread but potentially upset the odds in Ames.

NCAA Basketball: #17 Creighton @ Butler

Pick: Butler +3 / Wager: 2%

Butler has shown commendable form over their last seven games, posting a 5-2 record with the only setbacks being narrow single-digit defeats to UConn and Marquette. This promising stretch for the Bulldogs notably includes a thrilling 99-98 victory over Creighton at home, a game where Butler seized the momentum in the early stages of the second half and successfully held off Creighton’s charge in a nail-biting finish. Facing a formidable #17 ranked Creighton once again, Butler has the home court advantage, a factor that cannot be understated in its potential impact on the game’s outcome. Given Butler’s proven ability to outperform expectations and their recent history against Creighton, the proposition of Butler not just covering the +3 spread but also securing a win outright presents significant value.

NCAA Basketball: #4 Marquette @ #1 Connecticut (UConn)

Pick: Marquette +7 / Wager: 2%

The seven-point spread favoring UConn over Marquette is somewhat puzzling, suggesting a larger margin than anticipated. Our analysis sees this clash closer to a five-point differential. Shaka Smart’s Marquette squad is riding high on an eight-game winning streak, with star point guard Tyler Kolek spearheading their success, averaging over 26 points per game in this stretch. Initially reluctant to shoulder the offensive burden, Kolek has since embraced the role, becoming a pivotal figure in Marquette’s campaign.

Facing the top-ranked UConn, Marquette’s prowess from beyond the arc will be crucial. UConn’s defense is particularly stingy against 2-point shots, presenting a challenge for Marquette’s offense to maintain their rhythm and scoring efficiency. While the Golden Eagles have demonstrated defensive solidity, UConn’s diverse offensive threats pose a significant challenge. Yet, Marquette’s recent form against the spread—covering in their last five outings—coupled with UConn’s middling against the spread (ATS) record at home (.500), suggests that Marquette is well-positioned to cover the +7 spread, making them an attractive pick in what promises to be a closely contested battle.

NCAA Basketball: Wake Forest @ #21 Virginia

Pick: Under 130.5 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Virginia ML / Wager: 2%

The betting lines for this ACC showdown between Wake Forest and #21 Virginia offer intriguing value, especially in the wake of Virginia’s remarkable 22-game home winning streak being halted by Pittsburgh. That loss was notable not just for the streak’s end but for how Pittsburgh managed to break Virginia’s 48-game home record of keeping ACC opponents under 70 points, thanks in large part to an extraordinary shooting performance from beyond the arc.

Wake Forest, while a competent team, has struggled to secure significant road victories this season. Their previous encounter with Virginia this season resulted in a total score of 113, significantly under the line for this matchup, with Wake Forest taking a surprising win in a game that saw only 65 possessions. This historical context sets the stage for an under 130.5 wager.

The rationale for backing the under once again leans heavily on the expectation of a defensive resurgence from Virginia. Following a subpar defensive showing by their own high standards in the last two games, intensified focus in practice sessions post the Pittsburgh loss is anticipated to drive a strong defensive performance. Virginia’s commitment to tightening their defense, particularly against a Wake Forest offense that has shown inconsistency on the road, underscores the potential for another low-scoring affair.

Moreover, the Virginia Moneyline bet reflects confidence in the Cavaliers’ ability to rebound at home. Despite the recent blip, Virginia’s overall home record and their propensity for strong defensive play suggest they are well-placed to secure a victory, making them a solid pick to win outright against Wake Forest.

NCAA Basketball: #19 BYU @ Oklahoma State

Pick: Oklahoma State +6.5 / Wager: 3%

Despite facing challenges throughout the season, Oklahoma State has demonstrated resilience, especially when playing at Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater, where they've proven to be formidable opponents. The only exception has been a high-flying Kansas team, which managed to secure a significant victory margin there. For BYU, adapting to the rigors of Big 12 road games in their inaugural season has been challenging, with the Cougars covering the spread only once in five away games.

The Cowboys have felt the absence of Bryce Thompson, their second-leading scorer, due to a season-ending shoulder injury. Nevertheless, Oklahoma State has found a way to triumph in their last two conference games at home. A key factor in this resilience has been the performance of Guard Javon Small, who has stepped up as a reliable offensive force, averaging 18 points per game over his last three appearances. Given these dynamics, Oklahoma State's ability to compete and potentially upset at home makes them a compelling pick to cover the +6.5 spread against BYU, underscoring the value in backing the Cowboys in this matchup.

NCAA Basketball: Utah State @ Colorado State

Pick: Utah State +6.5 / Wager: 4%

This matchup comes at a critical juncture for Colorado State, particularly in the aftermath of their staggering second-half collapse against SDSU, where they were outscored 41-11, squandering a 44-30 halftime advantage. This game will test their resilience and ability to bounce back from such a demoralizing defeat. Utah State, on the other hand, has already demonstrated their capability to overcome the Rams, having secured a 77-72 victory in their previous encounter on January 6 at Logan. In that game, Utah State’s second-half rally was underscored by a dominant rebounding performance, outrebounding CSU 45-33, highlighted by Power Forward Great Osobor’s double-double of 20 points and 14 rebounds.

Compounding Colorado State’s challenges is the recent offensive slump of their leading scorer, Guard Isiah Stevens, who has shot just 7 for 22 from the field, averaging 10 points per game over his last two outings—a sharp decline from his season averages. This downturn in offensive production, coupled with Utah State’s proven ability to exploit Colorado State’s vulnerabilities, positions Utah State favorably to not only cover the +6.5 spread but potentially secure another victory against the Rams, making Utah State an attractive bet in this encounter.

NCAA Basketball: #22 Kentucky @ #13 Auburn

Pick: Kentucky +9.5 / Wager: 3%

Auburn’s impeccable home record this season, with a 13-0 streak and all victories by double digits, coupled with their defensive superiority over Kentucky, understandably positions them as the favorites in this high-profile matchup. However, the 9.5-point spread appears to be a tad generous. A more realistic differential, in my view, would be Auburn favored by 6.5 points.

Kentucky’s resilience and scoring prowess make them a formidable opponent that’s hard to dispatch with a large margin. Despite facing one of the nation’s most challenging schedules, the Wildcats have only succumbed to a double-digit defeat once this season—a 103-92 loss to Tennessee. This fact, along with Kentucky’s recent 2-3 record in their last five games, might have led to an inflated spread, suggesting an overestimation of Auburn’s advantage.

Given Kentucky’s track record of competitiveness and their ability to keep games close against top-tier opponents, there’s valuable betting insight in expecting the Wildcats to cover the +9.5 spread. While Auburn may very well continue their winning ways at home, the expectation here is for Kentucky to challenge them closely, staying within the spread.

NCAA Basketball: Radford @ High Point

Pick: Over 148 / Wager: 2%

Despite needing overtime to surpass the “over” in their recent matchup against USC-Upstate, High Point’s tendency towards high-scoring games shouldn’t be overlooked, especially given their recent track record (10-3 in favor of “overs” in their last 13 games). With an offense that’s among the most prolific in the nation, averaging 84.4 points per game (13th overall), much of High Point’s success can be attributed to a transfer-heavy lineup. This lineup, orchestrated by first-year Head Coach Alan Huss, features standout performers like former Troy guard Duke Miles, averaging 18.3 points per game, and former UTEP guard Kezza Giffa, contributing 16.5 points per game.

On the other side, Radford is far from a passive team. Their last three games have each reached at least 147 points, part of a 14-6 “over” streak, propelled by an efficient offense that excels from beyond the arc, shooting 37.7% (22nd nationally). Given both teams’ offensive capabilities and recent trends, the over 148 bet for this matchup holds considerable appeal, suggesting another high-scoring affair is on the horizon.

NCAA Basketball: NC State @ Clemson

Pick: NC State +7.5 / Wager: 3%

NC State finds themselves in a critical juncture of their season, facing a vital Quad 1 matchup against Clemson—a game that presents an opportunity to bolster their NCAA Tournament credentials, which are currently in jeopardy. The Wolfpack’s offensive strategy is heavily dependent on the performance of DJ Horne, who has been exceptional lately, averaging 26.5 points over his last four appearances. Despite a mixed record of 2-2 in these games, the losses were narrowly contested, with a total margin of just seven points, highlighting Horne’s significant impact.

Given Horne’s current form and the heightened sense of urgency facing NC State as they strive to keep their tournament hopes alive, there’s a strong argument to be made for the Wolfpack’s ability to cover the +7.5 spread against Clemson. The combination of Horne’s scoring prowess and the team’s desperation could very well translate into a competitive effort sufficient to stay within the point spread on the road.

NCAA Basketball: San Francisco @ Loyola Marymount

Pick: Over 146 / Wager: 2%

The previous encounter between San Francisco and Loyola Marymount, which concluded with a high-scoring total of 164 points, sets a compelling precedent for another high-scoring affair as they face off at the Gersten Pavilion tonight. Given this history and the current total set in the mid-140s, there’s a strong case that tonight’s game total is underestimated, especially considering San Francisco’s offensive capabilities.

San Francisco enters this matchup on the heels of a 10-3 “over” streak, despite a recent “under” against Santa Clara. Notably, one of these “overs” includes their last game against Loyola Marymount, where the Dons showcased remarkable shooting efficiency, exceeding 59% from the field, led by Jonathan Magbo and Marcus Williams, who scored 23 and 24 points, respectively. On the other side, Loyola Marymount has been on an “over” trend themselves, with 7 of their last 10 games surpassing the total points line. This suggests that both teams have the offensive depth and form to push the score beyond the 146-point mark tonight, making the “over” a promising bet for this West Coast Conference matchup.